Horizon Canada

Canada is one of only eleven economies in the world to hold a AAA credit rating, offering a stable investment climate, a robust banking system, and dynamic subnational governments—a rare combination that makes all the difference when considering internationalization. This is complemented by an exceptionally rich economic landscape: Alberta and Saskatchewan possess strategic mineral resources, Ontario is the country's industrial heartland, and British Columbia excels in port infrastructure and maritime technologies. In a context of global rearmament, Canada—the only non-EU country integrated into the SAFE framework—represents a growing market with strong alignment to French expertise.

In a North American tariff environment, CETA offers French companies privileged and secure access to the Canadian market. Since its entry into force, bilateral trade has increased by 50%, supported by growing Franco-Canadian initiatives that promote co-investment and business development.

José Agustín CEDEÑO – Regional Manager North America – Bpifrance

KEY FIGURES

• Population : 41,6 million inhabitants
• GPD : 2,507 billion (in USD)
• 8ème world economic power
• Currency Canadian Dollar (CAD)
• Exchange rate regime : Floating

COUNTRY RISKS

• Decline in exports to the United States: The share of Canadian exports to the United States has declined, from 76% in 2024 to 72% in 2025. There is also a high level of uncertainty for economic actors in the context of the UMSCA free trade agreement negotiations.
• Risk of an increase in the public deficit: With a budget based on a large-scale public investment policy, the Canadian economy is exposed to a significant increase in its budget deficit, projected in the short term to -2,7% of GDP in 2026.
• Structural deficit in the housing supply: With a lack of affordable housing, the deficit of which is estimated at around 2,5 million by 2035, the country faces a major challenge as this limits the geographical mobility of the workforce and hinders the expansion of dynamic sectors (technology, services, health in particular).
• Extreme weather events: Canada is facing an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, which directly affect the population and the economy, impacting infrastructure and increasing insurance costs.

AREA OPPORTUNITIES

• A robust banking sector: Despite a more restrictive macroeconomic environment, the Canadian banking sector remains resilient, with profitability on the rise and a strengthening of the financial system through strong capitalization of large systemic banks.
• Economic policy orientation: The Canadian government relies on a parliamentary majority to deploy its economic policy strategy, based on increased fiscal stimulus, the removal of internal trade barriers, and the diversification of international partnerships, in a context of more uncertain relations with the United States.
• Massive public investment: The Canadian federal budget is part of an expansionary approach, aimed at supporting activity and strengthening the country's economic resilience by targeting transportation, energy, housing and defence, for a total amount of CAD 280 billion over five years.
• Stable business climate: The country has good governance and a regulatory and legal framework that is favorable to the business climate.

To discover the full content, check out our edition Horizon Canada.